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Elections are now in progress for general elections in the Netherlands, with current polling data suggesting that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party may repeat their emerge victorious, though experts suggest PVV is unlikely of joining the future coalition.

Polling Trends and Election Dynamics

Wilders' party, which previously pulled off a surprise top result and established a four-party all-conservative government that collapsed within a year, is now slightly leading in surveys and is forecast to win between 24 to 28 MPs in the 150-seat house of representatives.

Nevertheless, PVV's support has declined since the previous election, when it won 37 parliamentary seats. Every significant political group have stated they will not entering into a coalition with Wilders, who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in June amid a dispute concerning his controversial immigration proposals.

Major Parties and Forecasts

At the end of a election period dominated by topics such as migration, medical expenses, and the nation's severe housing shortage, the centre-left GL/PvdA coalition, led by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, projected to win between 22 to 26 seats.

Also forecast to do well is the liberal-progressive D66, projected to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21 to 25 seats, while the right-leaning Christian Democrats (CDA) is anticipated to more than double its seat tally to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the Freedom Party, VVD, BBB, and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all forecast to lose seats, with several facing heavy losses.

Voting Process and Fragmentation

In the proportional Dutch system, securing just 0.67% of the vote yields a party one MP. Among the 27 parties contesting the election – which include parties for the over-50s, for youth, for animals, basic income advocates, and sports parties – as many as 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This high degree of fragmentation means that no one party is ever likely to secure a majority, and Holland has been governed by coalitions – often including four parties in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Post-Election Scenarios

The PVV leader claimed that "the democratic process would end" in the Netherlands if the his party becomes the biggest group yet is shut out of government. However, opponents and experts say that first place does not assure government participation and that any governing alliance with a majority is democratically valid.

Although the final outcome is hard to predict and coalition talks could take several months, political observers indicate that following the most extreme government in recent memory, the next Dutch cabinet is expected to be a broad-based coalition headed by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Election Day Details

Voting locations, including those in the miniature city Madurodam in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in Amsterdam, opened at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will close at 9pm. A usually accurate exit poll is anticipated shortly after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an official negotiator will explore potential governing alliances that could secure enough support in parliament. Potential partners will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must face a vote of confidence in parliament before taking office.