🔗 Share this article

A former special forces colonel, minister of state Al Carns was this week on manouevres cautioning that the UK needs to be preparing for war with Russia.

“The shadow of war is at Europe’s door again. That’s the reality. We’ve got to be prepared to prevent it,” he stated, in comments that exceed previous warnings by his boss, the defence secretary.

“Collectively, everybody – what is their role if we get caught in an fight for survival, and what do they need to be aware they need to do and what they can’t do, and how do we rally the nation to support a armed campaign?”

It was stark language from the middle-aged Scottish-born MP, who has had an exceptionally swift rise to his role of minister for the military.

A Swift Political Ascent

Naturally for a politician with a background in the armed forces, there is speculation about whether he is a potential future leader – as with, at various points, previous colleagues from a service background before him.

This time, however, some ruling party MPs think there could be a genuine possibility of Carns being a contender if and when the opportunity arises.

One of the reasons for that is that Carns has been engaged with politics for longer than it seems, as a former defence advisor to multiple previous defence secretaries.

But there is also the risk of being over-promoted as a politician with a backstory colleagues think will resonate with the public – without enough thought of whether they have the experience and shrewdness to make it to the top.

Military Career and Transition

Carns was born in Aberdeen, and state educated, before joining the Royal Marines in 1999 at the age of 19. He rose through the ranks and was awarded the Military Cross in 2011 “in recognition of gallant and distinguished services in Afghanistan”.

It came as a surprise when he resigned from the armed forces after 24 years of service to stand as an MP in Birmingham Selly Oak, shortly before he was due to be promoted to brigadier.

And in a sign he was immediately earmarked as a talent, the prime minister appointed him as a junior veterans minister straight after the 2024 election. He was elevated later that year to the more senior role with a portfolio covering all the military.

Media Presence and Political Attacks

Chiselled and confident, Carns has been an periodic spokesperson for the government, and has been an effective political attack dog when putting pressure on rival parties over issues of national security.

He has also found time to set a new global benchmark this year along with former military colleagues by climbing Mount Everest in under five days without acclimatising on the mountain, using xenon gas.

Ambitions and Party Skepticism

His name was floated as a possible future leader in earnest around the time of a leadership election last autumn, when his supporters began canvassing colleagues about a run for the job. That did not gain traction, with the prime minister's office firmly backing another candidate.

Since then, profiles of Carns have begun to appear in the media, with one newspaper presenting him as the “Action Man” that some were trying to prevent from ousting the prime minister.

While some MPs think he could be leadership material, others think he is making himself appear too ambitious when there is no opening at the top. There is also a wariness about the rapid rise of a star performer from outside politics.

“It's not proven that being senior in the military translates to being any good at politics any more than being a top prosecutor,” says one MP. “He is an unknown quantity.”